Ken Clarke OutFOXed!

Sorry for being so tardy posting the results of the British Conservative leadership vote. So, for those of you who don't already know, the votes were:

David Davis: 62
David Cameron: 56
Liam Fox: 42
Ken Clarke: 38 (Knocked Out)

This really suprised me, as I thouroughly expected Liam Fox to be bounced in the first round. However, he managed to gather just enough votes to edge out Ken Clarke. I had endorsed Davis for leader; but I hadn't really given Fox a serious look, and I must say that I am rather impressed with him. For one, he's younger than Davis (Davis is 56, Fox is 43). Secondly, he seemed more comfortable with the media than Davis when I watched the candidates' reactions to the vote on the BBC. For now, I'm sticking with Davis as my pick, but I think that Fox has warranted a serious second look.

The next vote is tommorow. If it is at the same time of day, it should be completed by 5:00 PM Grenwich Mean Time (2:00 PM Eastern, 11:00 AM Pacific in the U.S.). David Cameron is expected to draw a lot of support from Clarke. He has already recieved 11 new endoresements from Conservative Members of Parliament since Tuesday's vote (mostly former Clarke backers), and is expected to come in first. Liam Fox has picked up 5 new endorsements, and the BBC seems to think that he may get just enough to oust Davis, who had been the frontrunner coming into the first vote.

My Prediction for the second ballot: Cameron comes in first, Davis Second, Fox is ousted.

A Cameron win on this ballot does not at all indicate that he will have the most support coming into the final vote. The only reason that he will win the vote is because he is the only "modernizer" left in the race, while the right-wingers will still be split between two choices. I think that most of Fox's backers will support Davis in the finals, giving Davis a majority (and vice versa if Fox makes it).

While David Cameron is considered the man to beat at the moment, I still think that he has an uphill climb when it comes to convincing the party membership to choose his "modernizing" agenda over the more traditional conservative values offered by Davis and Fox. I refuse to call Mr. Cameron the favorite to win just yet.

Good Luck to David Davis and Liam Fox, may the best man win!

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